Adam Dunn, Chicago White Sox (ADP: 31, Player Rater: 290): Like Uggla, Dunn is 31 years old, with many of the same problems. Stark also addressed the Dunn topic, as did Eric Karabell on Monday; I generally agree with Eric on the "you've got one more week" approach with Dunn, but I bet we'd both admit it might be our tendency to preach patience talking.
Tom Szczerbowski/US PresswireThe move to the American League has been anything but good for Adam Dunn.
Dunn, again like Uggla, has had fastball issues in 2011; he's a .165/.310/.243 hitter against them this season, after .309/.399/.652 in 2009-10 combined. There's a key difference between the two, however: Dunn isn't improving in that department with time, and as a result, he's actually seeing an increased rate of fastballs in recent weeks. Through April, 54.4 percent of the pitches he saw were fastballs, 6.9 percent sinkers; since May 1, those numbers have risen to 59.3 and 9.5. Dunn is also a .197/.351/.311 hitter against fastballs since May 1, only marginally improved upon his .174/.309/.261 rates before that date. And surely you've heard all about his miserable performance against lefties, 1-for-42 (.024 avg.) so far. Clearly he's not adjusting, and American League pitchers are challenging him more as a result.
Nevertheless, just like Uggla, Dunn's problems are unlikely a decline in skills, and in his case, he actually has a wider array of explanations for them: the league change, the adaptation to designated hitter -- though his .296/.449/.648 rates in 16 career games as a National League DH during interleague play suggest otherwise -- and his hasty return after an April 5 emergency appendectomy. Those make me slightly more confident in Dunn's ability to bounce back than Uggla's, but at the same time, there aren't any hints that such a bounce-back is imminent.